The recent decision by the RBNZ to maintain the Official Cash Rate at 5.5 per cent for the sixth consecutive meeting has dashed expectations for immediate relief, echoing forecasts made by economists. As such, it will be some time before we can return to pre-pandemic levels.
The RBNZ’s stance reflects a cautious approach, with the central bank emphasizing that while some measures of inflation are showing signs of moderation, persistent hotspots remain. Consequently, interest rates are expected to remain steady until the inflationary pressures dissipate entirely, dashing many home-owners hopes for some relief on payments.
According to Katlyn Parker, an investment analyst at Milford Asset Management, rate cuts are unlikely to materialise in the near future. Despite adjustments in the RBNZ’s forecasts, which slightly brought forward the anticipated timeline for rate cuts, significant reductions are not expected until well into 2025. Parker underscores the RBNZ’s vigilance in continuously reassessing economic data before committing to any policy changes.
Attention is particularly focused on inflation figures, which, although showing a slight decline from its peak, remain at neat historic high levels. The RBNZ has been grappling with stubbornly high inflation for the past few years, significantly surpassing its target range of 1 to 3 per cent. Any indications of sustained wage inflation or inflation expectations could further delay the prospect of rate cuts, mirroring trends observed internationally.
The market’s reaction to the RBNZ’s decision has been notable, with interest rates and currency experiencing adjustments. Lower expectations of a rate hike have led to a decline in two-year interest rates, while the currency has depreciated. However, the share market’s response has been relatively muted, with the focus primarily on ongoing reporting seasons and equities performance.
Overall, the RBNZ’s decision to maintain interest rates reflects a cautious approach amid lingering inflationary pressures. While markets adjust to the news, Kiwis with mortgages may need to brace themselves for an extended period of stability before any significant changes to interest rates materialise.
As the economy continues to navigate uncertainties, including inflation dynamics and global economic trends, the RBNZ remains committed to its mandate of promoting price stability and sustainable economic growth. Although the markets are still shrouded in negativity and uncertainty, however, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting gradually closer.
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